Category Archives: News
Economist gives state of economy address
Mark Reccek , WFMZ.com Reporter, news@wfmz.com
Posted: 5:52 AM EDT Jun 09, 2016
ALLENTOWN, Pa. –
Economist Kamran Afshar, PhD, of Kamran Afshar Associates, Inc. (KAA), examined the state of the economy, both local and national, during a presentation Wednesday afternoon at the LC Bar Association in Allentown.
According to Afshar, Lehigh Valley businesses during the monthly of April saw the largest drop in the index of future purchases.
“Businesses significantly cut back on that one thing,” he said, adding the political election cycle leads to uncertainty. “Still a good number of them are expanding.”
In terms of hiring the last six months, there has been a slight drop. The number currently is about 12 percent, compared to 10 percent before the Great Recession.
“However, the number of business who have actually increased the numbers of employees is significantly higher than those that have reduced the number of employees they have,” he said.
Afshar also provided a forecast for hiring in the Lehigh Valley.
“Our current forecast for the balance of the summer is we are not going to see significant increases in employment,” he said. “By the end of the summer we are going to start to see a turnaround but we are at this point in a relatively flat area for net hiring.”
The causes, he said, are due to businesses beginning to become concerned with events that are occurring, and as businesses hire more employees they run out of the type of employees they seek to hire at the prices they are willing to pay.
Unemployment in the Lehigh Valley has decreased, Afshar also said, noting about 20,000 individuals are currently searching for employment.
“However, when you look at the initial unemployment claims, it has dropped to the level that is historically associated with a tight labor market,” he said. “If this trend continues, and I expect it to continue through the summer months at least, this would be the fourth time in the last 30 years that the Lehigh Valley has gone into a tight labor market.”
Unemployment will continue because individuals out of the employment market are not equipped to handle changes associated with certain jobs.
“At least for the next seven months you are going to see a tight labor market,” Afshar added.
Nationally, according to Afshar, the Gross Domestic Product, which crashed during the Great Recession, did rebound but then leveled off between 2 and 4 percent.
“The importance of that is we need to get the economy to about 3 and 3.5 percent,” he said. “Beyond that growth would be very slow.”
Afshar noted the economy typically “gets hot” when growth moves beyond 2.5 percent.
“Last quarter growth was really bad,” he said. “We are hovering around 2 percent growth for the year.”
The May results indicated only 38,000 new employees added to the job market
Almost 200,000 new jobs have been created every month. Since the start of the economic recovery, 80 percent of all the jobs created are full-time jobs, not part-time.
“It is a significant growth,” he said. “Employment is increasing, and that is real.”
Those unemployed for 27 or more weeks, at one point, numbered 7 million. That number has dropped to about 2 million.
Afshar also said many jobs that have left will never return “not because they have gone to China, but because they have gone away.”
“Technology has taken a lot of those [jobs],” he said. “Technology changes and the pace of that change is increasing and has become more rapid.”
Adjusted for inflation, real wages increased over the past 38 years from only $41,000 to $42,500, which amounts to 4.4 percent.
“Real wages have not increased,” he said.
The causes, he said, are due to the automation of manufacturing, which require fewer employees to do a job.
to read more go to:
http://www.wfmz.com/news/news-regional-lehighvalley/economist-gives-state-of-economy-address/39974228?item=1
Pessimism creeps into Lehigh Valley economy
Local employers’ spending and hiring outlook declines in Bethlehem economist’s index.
By Scott Kraus
The Morning Call
http://www.mcall.com/business/mc-jobs-lehigh-valley-economy-20160504-story.html
“Local economist says economy continues to improve”
Lehigh County Bar Association
CLE Seminar
“Recession, Recovery and Now”
Presented by: Kamran Afshar, Ph.D., and Buddy Lesavoy, Esq.
Thursday, March 26, 2015
Details and video at:
http://www.mcall.com/business/mc-recession-recovery-talk-20150326-story.html
http://www.wfmz.com/news/news-regional-lehighvalley/local-economist-says-economy-continues-to-improve/32036562
February’s inflation was 0.2%
February’s 0.2% inflation was mainly caused by higher food and energy price as well as increases in shelter costs. However, thanks to lower oil prices, inflation over the last 12 months was 0.0%.
This Week’s Economic Pulse
October 11, 2013
In this week’s Economic Pulse, Dr. Kamran Afshar gives us a synopsis of the week’s economic news, and takes a detailed look at trends in the Lehigh Valley, and important issues to watch in the coming week.”
WDIY
to listen to the 4 minute program click on the following.
http://wdiy.org/post/weeks-economic-pulse-1
About KAA – The Market Research Firm
KAA (http://kaa-inc.com) offers scientific multi-media market research and customer satisfaction studies. Operating since 1988, we have developed a systematic way of predicting and preventing customer flight and increasing our clients’ customer bases. Our Ph.D. led initiatives provide scientifically accurate and statistically significant results that turn customers into raving fans.
NEW Feature Program Begins Friday – Economic Pulse with Dr. Kamran Afshar
September 16, 2013
from: WDIY Program Highlights
Economic Pulse with Dr. Kamran Afshar will be a synopsis of the week’s economic news, with a detailed look at trends in the Lehigh Valley, and important issues to watch in the coming week.
Promised Neighborhoods, Lehigh Valley
The roll and impact of pre-K education on the community was discussed on Lehigh Valley Discourse, WDIY on July 18. To listen go to click on the following link.
http://www.wdiy.org/post/promise-neighborhood-lehigh-valley-discourse
About KAA – The Market Research Firm
KAA (http://kaa-inc.com) offers scientific multi-media market research and customer satisfaction studies. Operating since 1988, we have developed a systematic way of predicting and preventing customer flight and increasing our clients’ customer bases. Our Ph.D. led initiatives provide scientifically accurate and statistically significant results that turn customers into raving fans.
Is Bernanke daring you to buy stocks?
Radio interview with Chuck Jaffe on MoneyLife Radio.
130528 – Big Interview with Kamran Afshar
About KAA – The Market Research Firm
KAA (http://kaa-inc.com) offers scientific multi-media market research and customer satisfaction studies. Operating since 1988, we have developed a systematic way of predicting and preventing customer flight and increasing our clients’ customer bases. Our Ph.D. led initiatives provide scientifically accurate and statistically significant results that turn customers into raving fans.
“Do It Yourself” Market Research Web Tools Lack Scientific Oversight, Says KAA President
Market research firm is beta testing new product to help small and mid sized businesses get accurate analysis
Philadelphia, PA – Is your market research steering you in the wrong direction? KAA believes that many small to mid sized companies are being led to failure by their own market research. KAA faults the lack of scientific oversight of market research being conducted through “do it yourself” web tools. The tools are low cost and easy to implement but KAA believes that many of them are leading executives to make poor decisions.
Commenting on web based market research, Kamran Afshar, Ph.D., President of KAA stated: “Automated market research tools are helpful to big companies that have in-house research departments with trained professionals overseeing the initiatives. The problem is that many small to mid sized companies that don’t have research personnel believe that anyone can conduct accurate research. They are producing insights that aren’t scientifically accurate or statistically significant. Why? Because they disregard the science of market research, and understate the importance of unbiased questions, participant selection, and data analysis.”
KAA is beta testing a market research product that addresses the problem. The KAA Survey Engine offers automated features that are similar to those of their competition. The differentiator is that all client initiatives are overseen by KAA Ph.D.s. They write and / or proof survey questions, assist in participant selection, aid in implementation, and analyze results. KAA also affords their client’s the ability to deploy their surveys via web, smart devices, and / or traditional channels.
For additional information, please visit http://kaa-inc.com.
About KAA – The Market Research Firm
KAA (http://kaa-inc.com) offers scientific multi-media market research and customer satisfaction studies. Operating since 1988, we have developed a systematic way of predicting and preventing customer flight and increasing our clients’ customer bases. Our Ph.D. led initiatives provide scientifically accurate and statistically significant results that turn customers into raving fans.
About KAA – The Market Research Firm
KAA (http://kaa-inc.com) offers scientific multi-media market research and customer satisfaction studies. Operating since 1988, we have developed a systematic way of predicting and preventing customer flight and increasing our clients’ customer bases. Our Ph.D. led initiatives provide scientifically accurate and statistically significant results that turn customers into raving fans.