The results of the 2nd KADAC 2020 General Election poll

This is the second of two DeSales University – WFMZ polls to be released before the general election on November 3rd. This poll is to be released on Monday October 26, 2020. The survey data was collected between October 11 and 24 and includes the responses of likely voters residing in Pennsylvania’s 7th congressional district. This area includes all of Lehigh and Northampton counties, as well as portions of Monroe County. The survey and subsequent analysis was conducted by the Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center (KADAC) at DeSales University.

The results reported here are based on live telephone interviews of 448 likely voters (279 cell phones and 169 landlines). Respondents were selected through a randomized database of registered voters in the district. A weighting measurement has been used to make sure the survey is representative of the relative number of registered voters in each of the three counties in the 7th district. The margin of error for the survey is+/- 4.4% at a 95% level of confidence.

Our sample includes more Democrats (48%) than Republicans (37%), which resembles the breakdown of actual voter registration data in the district. However, only 30% of these voters identify as liberal while 35% reported that they are conservative. President Trump’s approval rating dropped to 36% from 40% in our first poll, mirroring the drop in his approval of his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which dropped slightly from 35% to 32%. Governor Tom Wolf’s scores on both accounts remain high in the 7th district.  55% of likely voters approve of the job he is doing as governor, and 58% approve of how he has dealt with the pandemic specifically.

Turning to the election on November 3rd, voters signal stronger support for Democratic candidates. These findings are bolstered by evidence of higher engagement from Democrats during the early voting period In Pennsylvania, where 70% of the already returned ballots have come from registered Democrats. According to the U.S. Elections Project, run by Michael McDonald at the University of Florida, nearly 97,000 votes have already been cast in the three counties we cover as of October 23rd.

In one of the two federal elections on the ballot, we have seen movement towards former Vice President Joe Biden since our last poll, giving him a lead of 56%-37% over President Donald Trump, an increase of 4 points since our previous release two weeks ago. We have also seen some movement towards President Trump solidifying his Republican base, as 81% of Republicans in this poll indicate they will vote for the president, up from 76% previously. But he still trails Biden in partisan support, as 91% of Democrats say they will vote for him. In the race to represent the 7th district in the House of Representatives, the current representative, Democrat Susan Wild leads her Republican challenger Lisa Scheller 54%-35%, which is nearly identical to the 54%-36% spread in our last survey.

We have also seen a slight uptick in voters’ reported willingness to take a government approved vaccine in 2020 since the last poll. 45% of respondents said they would be willing to take such a vaccine. But we have also seen an increase in the opposition to take a vaccine, with 38% of likely voters reporting that they would not take it. In our first poll, 41% indicated they would take it and 36% said they would not.

To determine the sample of likely voters, we only include registered voters in the 7th district of Pennsylvania who described themselves as either “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to vote in the upcoming general elections. The survey was designed by faculty at DeSales University in Center Valley, PA in conjunction with WFMZ. The poll was funded entirely by KADAC and WFMZ.