The results of the first KADAC poll in 2020

This is the first of two DeSales University – WFMZ  polls before the general election on November 3rd. This poll was released on Tuesday October 13, 2020. The survey was conducted between October 2nd  and 10th and includes the responses of likely voters residing Pennsylvania’s 7th congressional district, which includes all of Lehigh and Northampton counties, as well as parts of Monroe County and was conducted by the Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center (KADAC) at DeSales University. 

The results reported here are based on live telephone interviews of 466 likely voters (294 cell phones and 172 landlines.) Respondents were selected through a randomized database of registered voters in the district. A weighting measurement has been used to make the survey is representative of the relative number of registered voters in each of the three counties in the 7th district. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.3% at a 95% level of confidence.

According to the results of those who are likely to vote is as follows:

Participants in our sample identify themselves as slightly more conservative than liberal, while more Democratic than Republican. Our data shows a correlation between educational attainment and enthusiasm to vote in this general election.

Among likely voters participating in our survey, 40% approve of President Trump’s handling of his job, while 54% disapprove. Another 6% neither approve nor disapprove. 55% approve of Tom Wolf’s performance as governor, while 38% disapprove, and 7% neither approve or disapprove. Additionally, only 35% of respondents approve of President Trump’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, while 59% approve of Governor Wolf’s response.

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 15-point lead (54%-39%) over President Donald Trump among likely voters. 86% percent of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, are planning to vote for him again in 2020. 96% of those who voted for Hillary Clinton 2016 are planning to vote for Joe Biden in 2020. Among those who voted for someone else in 2016, 20% are planning to vote for Trump and 45% for Biden. Among those who didn’t vote in 2016, 36% are planning to vote for Trump and 43% for Biden.

Representative Susan Wild has a lead of 18 points (54%-36%) over Lisa Scheller, with particularly heavy support among higher educated likely voters. 85% percent of Democrats 19% of Republicans are planning to vote for Wild, while 71% of Republicans and 7% of Democrats are planning to vote for Scheller. 

Registered voters in the 7th district are almost evenly divided among those who will not get a government approved vaccine before the end of this year and those who would, with 41% of respondents indicating they would take such a vaccine and 36% saying they would not. And even taking or not taking the vaccine was also highly political; 37% of Democrats vs. 50% of the republican stated that they take the vaccine, if available before the end of this year. Independents resembled the Democrats more in this case as only 36% of them stated that they will take the vaccine by the year’s end.